Non-cancer risk assessment of the atmospheric air pollution effect on the population health on the basis of evolutionary models

Natalya Vladimirovna Stepanova


Aim and Scope: The aim of this study is to assess the non-carcinogenic risk and determine the accumulation of additional risks of health response for the cardiovascular and respiratory systems based on building the evolutionary models on chronic exposure to chemicals in the atmospheric air. Materials and Methods: The testing of the proposed methodological approaches was carried out by the example of a model scenario, according to the observation results based on systematic supervision within the social-hygienic monitoring. Result and Discussion: The results of calculation with the application of the evolutionary deterministic risk models in case of two scenarios (the background and the studied ones) allowed determining that the risk of respiratory diseases was formed earlier. It was established based on the indices of additional risk and presented risk index that the unacceptable (moderate) health risk was formed by the age of 27 years, and after the age of 40 years, it could be classified as high. Conclusion: We carried out the testing of the non-cancer risk assessment for the population health in the city of Kazan on exposure to chemicals coming with the atmospheric air (PM10, СО, NO2, and SO2) on the basis of evolutionary model. The cardiovascular and respiratory systems were found to be the critical organs for exposure to mentioned major pollutants.

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